Texas will create 4 million job vacancies both from new jobs and from job openings due to retirement between 2008 and 2018 -- 2.2 million of these vacancies will be for those with postsecondary credentials, 1.1 million for high school graduates and only 667,000 for high school dropouts.
Despite all the state's efforts and improving the number of students graduating from high school, the report predicts that by 2018 Texas will rank 41st in postsecondary education intensity.
These are among the conclusions of a new report by the Georgetown University Center for Education and the Workforce . The report predicts that by 2018, 56% of jobs in Texas will require postsecondary education.
The new report, "HELP WANTED: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018," by Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, and Jeff Strohl adds a powerful voice to previous reports that warn that students who try to enter the workforce with no more than a high school diploma will have meager opportunities for satisfying jobs.
"America is slowly coming out of the Recession of 2007—only to find itself on a collision course with the future: not enough Americans are completing college . . . By 2018, we will need 22 million new workers with college degrees—but will fall short of that number by at least 3 million postsecondary degrees . . . At a time when every job is precious this shortfall will mean lost economic opportunity for millions of American workers," the authors say.
Among findings in the report are:
- There is a growing mismatch between the jobs that will be created over the next decade and the education and training of our workers.
- Hundreds of thousands of jobs that have been destroyed by the recession and through outsourcing will not come back, and
- another 1.4 million jobs in certain industries will be permanently lost in the coming decade.
- By 2018, the economy will have created 43.8 million new jobs (some brand new, others replacements for jobs once held by retired workers). Some 63 percent of these new jobs will require workers with at least some college education.
- Postsecondary education and training is fast becoming the most viable path to the American middle class.
- Education and training for emerging jobs relates more to occupations and less directly to specific industries.
"The Perfect Storm", "Reach Higher, America", and reports by CLASP, Jobs for the Future, and several other national voices have conveyed this set of messages clearly over the past few years.
The report has caught the notice of adult education and workforce development planners at all levels, because if state's cannot graduate enough high school students to meet the 2018 goals, they will have to putmore emphasis on improving the skills and education of adults already in the workforce.
The report is available online from http://cew.georgetown.edu
"Between 1973 and 2018, our projections show that jobs available for workers with postsecondary education are projected to increase from 28 percent to 63 percent of all occupations. In our analysis of occupations, we find that nine out ten workers with a high school education or less are limited to three occupational clusters that either pay low wages or are in decline....
"As the economy gets back on track over the next five years, 60 million Americans are at risk of being locked out of the middle class, toiling in predominantly low-wage jobs that require high school diplomas or less. Consider that, in 1973, there were 25 million jobs available to people with at least some college or better (Figure 2). By 2007 that number ballooned to 91 million jobs. In 34 years, the American job machine nearly quadrupled the number of jobs available to people with at least some formal education beyond high school, " the report notes..
The report says that workers without postsecondary education are dropping out of the middle class.
